The fairest way to reach a decision
Upon looking into the statistical significance of the figures I discovered the following.
First, May’s Theorem states that simple majority voting is the only anonymous, neutral, and positively responsive social choice function between two alternatives (K.O. May, Econometrica, 20, 680 – 684, 1952). Put simply, this means that the Yes/No referendum vote on leaving the EU was the fairest way to reach a decision.
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Hide AdThe next question to ask is whether the result was statistically reliable since it was so close.
The answer to this is offered by the Z-test for the difference between two proportions, ie the proportion that voted Yes and the proportion that voted No.
With 51.9 per cent voting Yes, and with a total of 33.57 million voters, the result of the calculation is 160, which far exceeds the conventional numerical threshold for a reliable result.
This means the referendum result was reliable.
The reason for its reliability lies in the large number of participating voters.
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Hide AdWe may therefore conclude that statistically speaking the British people voted convincingly to leave the EU.
However, I do not believe the statistics adequately deal with the current situation with the country roughly split in two.
It seems intuitively wrong to take half the country in a direction they do not want, whichever way the election went, and this is why I believe that a binding decision to leave should only be made after the negotiations are complete, and May’s Law means that this should be by refendum.
BW Jervis
S11